Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
As of late September 2018, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were above average south of 15°S and especially around and east of Fiji.
The most anomalously warm water was located in a box that stretched from the Dateline (180°) to 160°W. This are may be a focus for enhanced rainfall and convection over the next few months and may be an elevated risk area for tropical cyclone genesis as we head into late 2018 and early 2019.
Meanwhile, SSTs were mostly below average around New Caledonia and broadly near average around Vanuatu.
Farther north, SSTs showed a La Niña-like signature immediately south of the equator but an El Niño like pattern to the north of it. SSTs near Papua New Guinea were above average, a condition that is more consistent with La Niña.
Overall, this mixed pattern supports continued ENSO-neutral conditions.
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