Climate Projections
Earth’s climate and oceans are changing in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The Pacific Islands region will experience higher air and sea temperatures, changes in wind and rainfall patterns, higher sea levels and increasing ocean acidification. The impacts of these changes are already being felt, and will continue to have significant implications on livelihoods and for sustainable development in the region.
The resources and tools shown here can help Pacific Island countries adapt to climate change and be better prepared to manage the impacts. It is the responsibility of the Pacific Islands National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to utilise and effectively communicate to their stakeholders such information on climate change that is relevant to their country and region.
Regional and national/sub-national projections
The Regional Climate Consortium for Asia and the Pacific (RCCAP) is a community of practice, established by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to facilitate the development, dissemination and application of climate information in support climate resilient development in its Developing Member Countries (DMCs). This web portal provides access to climate data, and guidance material and other resources made available through the Technical Assistance project Regional Climate Projections Consortium and Data Facility in Asia and the Pacific. Note: This Site is Under Development.
The Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) Simulations use output from standard global climate models as the basis for much finer scale regional climate simulations for Hawai`i. We have configured a nested version of the advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with both high resolution and improved physics for the Hawaiian region.
Dynamical Downscaled and Projected Climate for the US Pacific Islands (includes Guam, Kauai, Oahu, Samoa). Climate projections include two scenarios, one for RCP4.5 and the other one for RCP8.5. The dynamical downscaling provides hourly atmospheric and land surface variables, such as rainfall, surface sensible heat fluxes and evaporation, radiative fluxes, wind, and temperature.
Resources, tools, data and training material
Developing climate change information for the Pacific has been prepared primarily to assist NMHSs and their sectoral stakeholders to jointly undertake national/sub-national climate change risk assessments. It broadly outlines steps for identifying, developing and applying climate change information as part of a staged risk assessment process, and provides advice and resources for undertaking each step.
Pacific Climate Futures is a user-friendly web-based tool, built upon the extensive analysis of global climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP3) from climate change in the Pacific. Users can explore the likelihood of future changes in a range of variables (temperature, rainfall, wind, sunshine, humidity and evaporation) based on 13 time periods (2030, 2035, 2040, …, 2085, 2090) and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (very-low-RCP2.6, low-RCP4.5, medium-RCP6.0 and very-high-RCP8.5).
The Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program New Science and Updated Country Reports provide a summary of information from climate variability, extremes and change in the Western Tropical Pacific for each partner country.
Climate change monitoring
The Pacific Climate Change Monitor describes variability and change in Pacific Island climates, drawing on the latest meteorological and oceanographic data, information, and analyses.
Node Lead: CSIRO