Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) - 13
Forum(s) Objectives:
1) To present and discuss monthly and seasonal 2023/24 climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks;
2) To discuss and determine how monthly and seasonal outlooks are produced in terms of accuracy, utility, weaknesses and strengths;
3) To discuss how NMHSs are currently accessing and assessing the available guidance, making them nationally relevant, tailoring them for specific end users, and disseminating them to users;
4) Climate change projection updates; and
5) To discuss how ENSO impacts the agriculture and fisheries sector, sector climate information needs, how NMHS products can be improved and how NMHS can improve their media and social media products for the community.
Expected Outcomes:
a)Improved understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and prediction information and better understanding of outlook confidence/skill for each country;
b) Regional statement on climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for 2023/24 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements;
c) Better understanding of fisheries and agricultural sector climate and ocean information needs
d) Improved climate and ocean bulletins, media and social media messages better meeting stakeholder and community needs
e) PICOF Statement and PICOF report
Register Here
PICOF-13 regional statement (issued October 2023)
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Agenda
Day 1 – Monday 23 October 2023. PICOF -National Meteorological Hydrological Services (NMHSs) Day
|
Time |
Agenda Item |
Responsible |
|
8:30am -9:00am |
Registration |
SPREP |
|
9:00am -9:45am |
Opening and Setting the Scene
Opening prayer
Opening remarks
Meeting objectives [download presentation] |
NMS Rep
SPREP Rep WMO Rep Fiji Government PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair |
|
9:45am-10:15am |
Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook
Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) |
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
|
|
10:15am-10:45am |
Morning Tea and Group Photo |
|
|
10:45am- 12.25pm |
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May to October Climate Outlook.
Overview of November to April state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook [download presentation]
Overview of November to April state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook [download presentation]
Overview of the TCs over May to October [download presentation]
Overview of climate and ocean impacts over the last six months: NOAA, University of Hawaii, BoM, SPC, SPREP, and NIWA |
(20 minutes each)
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA |
|
12:25pm - 12:45pm |
Session 3: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables
A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2023, these will be Tropical Cyclones & Surface Winds and Sea Level [download presentation Tropical Cyclones] [download presentation Sea Level] |
(10 minutes each)
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
|
|
12.45pm- 1.45pm |
Lunch |
|
|
1:45pm -3:00pm |
Session 4: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for November 2023 to April 2024
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation]
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation]
PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison [download presentation] |
(20 minutes each)
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
|
|
3:00pm- 3:15pm |
Afternoon Tea |
|
|
3.15pm – 3.45pm |
Session 5: Looking Forward Long-Term
A brief review of climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2023, these will be Tropical Cyclones & Surface Winds and Sea Level [download presentation Tropical Cyclone] [download presentation Sea Level] |
CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP
|
|
3.45pm- 4.15pm |
Session 6: Annual-to-Decadal Prediction
What is annual to decadal prediction? WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2021 to 2025 [download presentation] |
Met Office Hadley Centre
|
|
4.15pm -5.00pm |
Session 7: Summary of proceedings & feedback
Drafting committees produce Day 1 component of the PICOF-13 Report and Statement including media version of the outlooks. |
|
Day 2 – Tuesday 24 October 2023.
| Time | Agenda Item | Responsible |
| 8.30am - 9.00am | Registration | SPREP |
| 9.00am - 10.00am | Welcome and objectives for the day Session 1: Presentation on key messages from Day 1 tailored for sector representatives Discussion: opportunity for sector representatives obtain more information |
Chair of the PICOF Statement Drafting Committee |
| 10.00am - 10.30am | Morning Tea & Group Photo | |
| 10.30am - 11.15am | Session 2: Sectors work with NMHSs to identify likely impacts for the 2023/24 El Niño event based on impacts associated with past events Group work by country and sector Divide into six groups large country agriculture, medium country agriculture and small country agriculture. Same for fisheries (6 groups) |
Simon McGree |
| 11.15am - 12.00pm |
Session 3: Identify regional stakeholders and co-explore needs. (5min presentation & panel discussion)
|
Gibson Susumu, SPC
PIFON |
| 12.00pm - 1.00pm | Lunch | |
| 1.00pm - 3.00pm | Session 4: Review of existing NMHS climate and ocean products and services and explore way forward in terms of improving and/or developing new solutions. Focus specifically on tailored bulletins for the agricultural and fisheries sector Do they understand the bulletins? Is it the right information? How could the content and presentation be improved? How can the sectors apply existing NMHS information in their operations? Would they? Which of their target 'client' groups would benefit and how? How often would they want it? Every month? Or only when something interesting is happening? Would their client groups understand it or do they need simplified products/social media content? |
Simon McGree |
| 3.00pm - 3.30pm | Afternoon Tea | |
| 3.30pm - 4.45pm | Session 5: Agri-Fisheries Value Chain Co-development of products Various UIPs |
Patricia Mallam |
Day 3 – Wednesday 25 October 2023.
| Time | Agenda Item | Responsible |
| 8.30am - 9.00am | Registration | SPREP |
| 9.00am - 9.15am | Session 1: Welcome and program outline | Program Manager ClimSA |
| 9.15am - 9.30am | Session 2: Vanuatu Tailored System of Climate Services of Agriculture | Sunny Seuseu |
| 9.30am - 10.00am | Session 3: OSCAR and Agro-Met Bulletins: Bridging the Climate Service Gap for Vanuatu | Dr Jong Ahn Chun |
| 10.00am - 10.30am | Morning Tea | |
| 10.30am - 11.15am | Session 4: Best practices and lessons from Van-KIRAP project |
Mr. Pakoa Leo Mrs Moirah Matou |
| 11.15am - 12.00pm |
Session 5: Panel Discussion, Beyond Forecasting: Co-Developing Resilience in Vanuatu’s Agriculture and Fisheries |
Mr. Pakoa Leo Mrs Moirah Matou Mr. Ham Jayven Dr Jong Ahn Chun |
| 12.00pm - 1.00pm | Lunch | |
| 1.00pm - 2.00pm | Session 6: Discussion on requirements for regional agrometeorological and fisheries bulletins • SPC Horizon Scan Activity |
Dr. Ramona Stephanie O’Conner (SPC) |
| 2.00pm - 3.00pm | Session 7: Workshop Evaluation Workshop evaluation, finalization and release of PICOF statement/outlook (media version) |
PICOF Statement Drafting Committee
|
| 3.00pm - 3.30pm | Afternoon Tea | |