Pacific Islands Climate Outlook and Stakeholder Forum 15
The Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) is a bi-annual meeting that provides a platform for dialogue and knowledge exchange between the providers and users of climate information. PICOF-15 will enable representatives from Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICT) and climate information providers to review Pacific climate and ocean conditions including impacts of extreme climatic events from May to October 2024 and issue outlooks for key climate parameters, including tropical cyclones, for the next six months (November 2024 – April 2025). Such forum will also allow users to provide feedback and support the providers of climate information to formulate response strategies.
Expected Outcomes
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Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) – 15
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Improved understanding of climate and ocean monitoring and outlook information and better understanding of the outlook and outlook confidence/skill for the region for the period in question;
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Produce a regional statement containing climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for November 2024 to April 2025 which NMHSs can use as guide to develop their national statements;
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PICOF-15 Report
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Assist regional stakeholders and NMHSs where possible to improve climate and ocean bulletins as well as media and social media content better meeting primary stakeholder and community needs
| DAY 1 | ||
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Time (Tonga time) |
Agenda Item |
Responsible |
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10.30am-11.00am (7.30am Palau time, 1pm Honolulu time and 11pm UTC) |
Registration including morning tea Group photograph |
SPREP |
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11.00am -11.30am |
Opening and Setting the Scene Opening prayer
Opening remarks
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MC – Terry Atalifo A/Director Liatia Fifita or representative
PICS Panel/RCC Management Committee Chair |
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11.30am-11.50am |
Session 1: ENSO Status and Outlook Including highlights from Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) |
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC |
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11.50am-1.00pm |
Session 2: Looking Back - Review and Evaluation of May to October Climate Outlook Overview of April to October state of the climate, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook Overview of April to October state of the ocean, plus evaluation of the last PICOF outlook Overview of the TCs over May to October
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(First 3 subsections, 15 minutes each, 4th subsection 25 minutes)
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
Palau, Solomon Islands and Cook Islands (8 minutes each)
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1.00pm-2.00pm |
Lunch |
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2.00pm-2.30pm |
Session 3: Looking Back Long-Term: Status of key variables A brief examination of long-term trends for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2024, these will be air temperature and rainfall |
NOAA, University of Hawaii, BOM, SPC, SPREP, NIWA
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2.30pm-3.45pm |
Session 4: Looking Forward – Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks for November 2024 to April 2025 PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison PICOF outlook and RCC Node for LRF individual model/MME guidance and skill comparison |
(25 minutes each)
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC NIWA, BOM, Meteo-France, NOAA, University of Hawaii, APCC, SPREP, SPC
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3.45pm-4.15pm |
Afternoon Tea |
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4.15pm-4.45pm |
Session 5: Looking Forward Long-Term A brief review of climate change projections for variables of interest to Pacific communities: In October 2024, these will be air temperature and rainfall |
CSIRO, UGCRP, BoM and SPREP
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4.45pm-5.00pm |
Session 6: Summary of proceedings & next steps |
PICS panel chair |
| DAY 2 | ||
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Time (Tonga time) |
Agenda Item |
Responsible |
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10.30am-11.00am |
Morning Tea |
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11.00am-1.00pm |
Session 7: Production of National Statements
Using a pre-prepared template RCC-N members will assist the member countries produce national statements based on information from Day 1 and from other sources of high-quality climate monitoring and prediction information. |
All RCC-N members |
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1.00pm-2.00pm |
Lunch |
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2.00pm-2.30pm |
Session 8: Review of PICOF-15 and past PICOFs
Open discussion
This is an opportunity for the NMHSs, RCC-N members and WMO representatives to review and propose changes to PICOF if required |
Terry Atalifo, John Marra and Simon McGree |
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2.30pm-3.00pm |
Session 9: Introduction to GEDSI and Inclusive early warning early action: checklist and implementation guide |
Patricia Mallam |
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3.00pm-3.30pm |
Afternoon tea |
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3.30pm-5.00pm |
Session 10: Working with Vulnerable Groups
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Katabwena Tawaka Pacific Disability Forum |
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5.00pm-5.10pm |
Summary of proceedings, next steps and PICOF closing |
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